TheGreatCthulhu skrev:
Är inte atomvintern idag något som inte har särkilt mycket vetenskapligt stöd, just för att de stora damupplungningarna och eldstormarna troligtvis uteblir?
Irans mål?
This map shows the global distribution of top 400 "urban areas" with at least 1,000,000 inhabitants in 2006:
https://en.m.wikiquote.org/wiki/File:2006megacities.svgLocation of the 30 biggest "mega-slums" in the World:
https://en.m.wikiquote.org/wiki/File:Pr ... villes.pngMegacities:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megacity#GrowthDärifrån:
From around 1825 to 1918 London was the largest city in the world, with the population growing rapidly; it was the first city to reach a population of over 5 million in 1900. In 1950, New York City was the only urban area with a population of over 10 million.[35] Geographers had identified 25 such areas as of October 2005,[36] as compared with 19 megacities in 2004 and only nine in 1985. This increase has happened as the world's population moves towards the high (75–85%) urbanization levels of North America and Western Europe.
25/9=2,8 alltså har antalet megacitys i runda tal tredubblats sedan 1985.
Om debatten om Atomvintern:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_w ... t.org_11-8Därifrån:
”Dr. Richard D. Small, director of thermal sciences at the Pacific-Sierra Research Corporation similarly disagreed strongly with the model assumptions, in particular the 1990 update by TTAPS that argues that some 5,075 Tg of material would burn in a total US-Soviet nuclear war, as analysis by Small of blueprints and real buildings returned a maximum of 1,475 Tg of material that could be burned, "assuming that all the available combustible material was actually ignited".”
Så om man tar 5,075 Tg/1,475 Tg=3,44
Och sedan 2,8/3,44=0,81
Då får man alltså cirka 81% av vad den första beräkningen visade och alltså blir det i så fall cirk 81% av vad forskarna kom fram till år 1983.
Med andra ord även om forskarna 1983 hade fel då så blir effekten ändå idag ca. 81% av deras resultat p g a att nu har vi mycket större och fler storstäder än då.
Men:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear ... and_debateDärifrån:
”A paper by the United States Department of Homeland Security, finalized in 2010, states that after a nuclear detonation targeting a city "If fires are able to grow and coalesce, a firestorm could develop that would be beyond the abilities of firefighters to control. However experts suggest in the nature of modern US city design and construction may make a raging firestorm unlikely".[164] The nuclear bombing of Nagasaki for example, did not produce a firestorm.[165] This was similarly noted as early as 1986–88, when the assumed quantity of fuel "mass loading" (the amount of fuel per square meter) in cities underpinning the winter models was found to be too high and intentionally creates heat fluxes that loft smoke into the lower stratosphere, yet assessments "more characteristic of conditions" to be found in real-world modern cities, had found that the fuel loading, and hence the heat flux that would result from efficient burning, would rarely loft smoke much higher than 4 km.”
Om detta stämmer så blir det mycket mildare men EMP:n är kvar och detta gällde i USA.
Sedan har resten av världen också?!
Låt oss hoppas att det sista stämmer men jag skulle inte svära på det.
Mvh
